SpaceX

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Elon made some of the key technical decisions and still does to this day. We meet with him weekly (often more frequently). He goes deep with the team and contributes significantly. I don’t know how he does this, but he just makes it happen. Consistently for the past 10 years, and I don’t see this changing.

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Ken Paxton has my Complete and Total Endorsement to be the next U.S. Senator from Texas — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN! President DONALD J. TRUMP

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Grok Bot summary of SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen’s new interview with Tony Kim at SpaceX Mission Control. Bret’s path - Came from semiconductors (Qualcomm, Broadcom; was CFO of MindSpeed) - Barely knew SpaceX / Elon when a board member called - Thought aerospace sounded “old and stodgy” vs 6-month chip cycles - Visited the rocket factory, called his wife on the drive home: we’re moving back to LA - Now sits in the same magical factory: Dragon in the rafters, ~700 launches run from Mission Control, ~40 buildings feeding the campus - Full circle: semiconductors again via AI / chips --- Taking on AI complexity (during the biggest IPO ever) - SpaceX DNA: run toward “impossible” challenges (first booster recovery felt like a rock concert) - xAI acquisition in January + X + Cursor + Colossus = complexity multi-X in ~1–2 years - AI is now the biggest business at SpaceX - Bought time-to-market into the biggest product cycle of their lifetime - SpaceX leadership DNA applied to that team - Already feel leading on infra cost and speed - Products moving: Grok 4.6, 4.7 soon, Grok Bot viral, Cursor strong - Every week matters; soon every day --- AI business: the money picture - ~$100B company ARR exiting this year (annualized on December) — AI is more than half / the majority - A year ago AI revenue was ~zero - Capacity: a bit over ~2 GW this year → guidance 5–10 GW by end of next year - Becoming one of the biggest hyperscalers, fast Why they move so fast (vertical integration) - Engineer the data centers themselves - Act as GC: buildings, power, cooling, networking (plus partners) - Used to regulators from rockets + telecom - Removes margin stacking - Talent transfer: launch-site / pressurized systems people onto data centers — Elon compared it to Yankees vs little league Hosting model / ROI - Monetize compute while catching up on software - Demand knocked: “what are you doing with all that Colossus compute?” - Short contracts: ~3 months + 3-month out (flexibility for their own future training needs) - Payback: dramatically less than one year on cutting-edge terrestrial compute - Hosting customers include tier ones like Anthropic, Google, and others - Same watts can later flip to their own software at higher $/watt — optionality Frontier models - Moving maybe faster than anyone on trajectory - ~5 serious players; need to be at frontier for recursive improvement - Coding solutions improving dramatically - Consumer vs enterprise tools will stratify - Grok Bot: growing faster than anything they’ve seen; “transformational” user feedback; enterprise coming; expects roll into Cursor AI safety - Follow Elon’s self-regulation / peer-review path (like other industries) - Logical, collaborative, including outside the US - Hopeful something lands quickly TAM framing (IPO) - ~$28T TAM quoted at IPO; AI was ~$25–26T of that (digital AI only) - Physical AI not even in that number — Bret thinks physical AI eventually bigger than digital - Launch / space TAM = hundreds of billions (almost rounding vs AI) - Connectivity (mobile + broadband) ~$2T — still small vs AI - Differentiation: infra + X content (~500–600M MAUs) + consumer + enterprise push (Cursor etc.) What to watch: Starship + terrestrial compute Bret’s prioritization cheat code: 1. Get Starship right 2. Get terrestrial compute right for the next ~2 years until orbital kicks in → Transformational financially Starship status - Catalyst for all three businesses: space, satellites, AI - Holy grail: full reusability → another ~10x cheaper $/kg to orbit - Opens moon boots / lunar base / bigger industry - Flight 14 later this month: production V3 Starlink broadband satellites — real revenue payload - One Starship V3 load ≈ ~20× what Falcon 9 flew for Starlink capability - Each V3 satellite ~1 terabit; ~50–60 per flight = enormous bandwidth per launch - A couple launches start filling V3 planes; first-half-next-year benefits - Eventually Starlink as % of global internet traffic - Connectivity demand from machines (robots, AVs, agents) will dwarf human brains - Same Starship unlocks next-gen direct-to-cell / direct-to-device - Same bus + more solar + radiator + compute chips = orbital compute constellation Reusability timeline - Flight 15 may attempt catch / bring back first + second stage - First stage already recovered and reflown - Flight 13 soft splash best yet; recovered ship like a whale, engineers studied heat shield - Reliable stage recovery this year; meaningful reflight next year - Once a few second stages reflight → orbital compute cost can match terrestrial - Then orbital cost curve goes down (tech / Moore’s law / aircraft-like amortization) while terrestrial gets more expensive (power, labor, regulation, cooling) - Clean free solar, no community impact - Industry agrees space compute is the future — debate is timing; others say ~decade; SpaceX flies first ones next year; meaningful compute in ~2028 Scale ambition - Both cost and speed matter; near-term availability/speed most important - On track toward ~100 GW/year by end of decade (~20% of entire US grid each year) - Elon talking terawatt-scale in the 2030s - Hosting proves staying power + virtuous cycle for industry - New NVIDIA platforms: just fly the next satellite generation — no whole new terrestrial campus cycle TerraFab (chips / memory) - Parallel to orbital ramp, not after - Not replacing NVIDIA — love the partnership; will buy all they can - Worry is deeper fab / memory supply chain - Memory industry ~30%/yr growth vs SpaceX wanting triple-digit — won’t work - Hard technical challenge; memory may be early focus - Want volume benefit by late decade (demo next year with Tesla development line → something in ’28 → meaningful ’29+) Viewer Q&A highlights **First bottleneck in the AI chain?** - Chip supply for next year - Power for infra players (utilities used to ~1% growth; turbines / blades constrained) - SpaceX standing up investment casting for turbine blades themselves - Orbital is the big unlock; squeeze every terrestrial watt meanwhile How to tell durable AI spend vs keep-up spend? - Bret: durability of revenue; diversified monetization of the same compute; host now, software later at higher $/watt; guided next-year monetization range ~$30–50/watt - Tony: stack layers have different costs, margins, contract duration; SpaceX spans many layers with <1-year payback on infra How soon a data center in space? - First orbital compute satellites end of next year - Meaningful compute in 2028 - Better phrase: “racks in space,” not giant buildings - Same V3-like bus + solar + radiator + compute chips - Already flown ~11,000 sats; launch + inter-sat + ground links already solved - ~full rack (~72 NVIDIA-class) concept per sat; ~5 MW compute per launch Tony’s investor wrap - Still early; trends accelerate into physical AI and beyond Earth - Connectivity / tokens increasingly for machines, not just humans --- Bottom line in one breath SpaceX is using rocket DNA — vertical integration, crazy talent, short-cycle iteration — to become a top AI infra + software player now, while Starship unlocks Starlink V3, direct-to-cell, and orbital “racks in space.” Watch two things: terrestrial compute scale (toward $100B ARR and multi-GW) and Starship reusability. Everything else is downstream of those.

BREAKING: NASA chief Jared Isaacman says SpaceX is incredible and the United States would be seriously challenged in space without SpaceX. “They’re our most important launch partner. We can’t send astronauts to and from the space station without them... We are fortunate.”

Through the VOICE trial, Terry is using his Neuralink implant to help fine-tune a brain-to-voice interface for himself and others who can’t speak. He trained the algorithm first by miming speech as best he could, then by simply thinking the words and hearing them come out in his own natural voice. Powered by Grok Voice from @SpaceXAI

Transparency builds trust

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Someone gave the leading AI models the Political Compass test. Grok 4.5 landed by far closest to the political center. Every model from Anthropic, Google, Meta, OpenAI, Deepseek, and others clustered far to the left. This is why building a maximally truth-seeking AI matters.

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My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more.

🚨#BREAKING: Outrage is erupting after a White elderly couple in their 80s let a Black female stranger use their shower because they felt bad for her... ...she then ST*BBED THEM BOTH TO DE*TH!!!! Now, she's pleading NOT GUILTY BY REASON OF INSANITY. Yes, you read that right. Their names were Darryl and Sharon Getman. He was 83, she was 80. They had been married for more than 20 years. On December 30th, a woman named Vickie Williams was seen wandering a retirement community. Security guards saw her. Cameras caught her multiple times. One resident was so unnerved by an encounter with her that they hit a panic alarm. ...then she knocked on the Getmans' door. She asked if she could use their shower and charge her cellphone. Darryl and Sharon Getman, 83 and 80 years old decided they should show some kidness... ...and they let her in. Sometime between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m., prosecutors say Vickie Williams grabbed a kitchen knife and brutally m*rdered them both. A forensic pathologist testified they found of MULTIPLE wounds. Both had defensive wounds, meaning an 83-year-old man and his 80-year-old wife spent their final moments fighting for their lives. When police found Darryl, a butcher-style knife was still buried in his abdomen. There were bloody footprints through the house and out into the garage. Prosecutors say that after k*lling them, she WASHED HER CLOTHES in their laundry room while they She took their car keys. And at 2 in the morning, a camera photographed the Getmans' green Kia Soul rolling out of that retirement community. She drove it all the way to Savannah, Georgia. And when she turned up at a man's apartment in Georgia days later, here is what he testified, under oath, this week: "She told me she bought a new car." She LIED about it and he said she was rushing inside "like somebody was after her or something." She was arrested January 2nd at an Amtrak station in Savannah, still driving the couple's car. And now, almost four years later, her defense is that she was suffering from 'psychosis" and should be found not guilty by reason of insanity. Prosecutors say she has an arrest record going back decades of assault and robbery. Say their names. Darryl Getman. Sharon Getman. WE DO NOT HAVE TO LIVE LIKE THIS!!!!!!!

My great grandfather took my family to Ukraine in 1993 He wanted us to see the aftermath of communism We went to Odessa and Crimea Starving kids begging in front of the majestic Odessa opera house hit different than anything else I've seen The contrast of empire with despair