Suspect we will start to hear about a “Pareto optimal” balance of computationally efficient humans, cheaper open-source tokens and frontier tokens. Our internal AI spend @Atreidesmgmt will be roughly 100x higher in August 2026 vs. March 2026. Still roughly doubling every month. Note that is before Grok Bot moves to consumption pricing which will likely create a step function when it happens (at least for me). AI means that scale has become more important to investing imo. I think there will be a minimum token spend required to be competitive in most knowledge based industries. The “compute inequality” referenced by Sholto in our discussion.

people don’t realize this, but 2026 appears to be the first year in human history where humanity as a whole is below replacement fertility. this has never happened before. not during wars. not during pandemics. for the first time in human history, we are not producing enough children to replace ourselves. this is the only real existential crisis.

Did you know Elon Musk was weirdly "predicted" in a Wernher von Braun book nearly 80 years ago? In his 1948 novel *Project Mars*, von Braun describes a future Martian government led by a figure called the "Elon." It's not a person's name, but a title for the head of government. Still, considering Elon Musk's lifelong obsession with Mars, this has to be one of the strangest coincidences in space history!

Why did SpaceX choose 301 stainless steel for Starship 👇👇

Rome handed out free grain to 40,000 citizens in 73 BC. By 46 BC, Julius Caesar found 320,000 people lining up for their monthly ration. That eight-fold expansion happened in under three decades, and it shows you how welfare states actually grow. No Roman senator stood up and announced a plan to addict a third of the city to government bread. It happened incrementally, through political competition. Each magistrate who wanted votes expanded eligibility. Each expansion normalized the next one. The citizen who once considered the dole shameful eventually expected it, then demanded it, then organized politically to protect it. This is the core mechanism free market thinkers have identified across every era: once you create a transfer program, you create a constituency for that program. Recipients vote. Administrators build careers. Grain merchants who supply the state develop a stake in keeping the contracts flowing. The political economy locks in. Caesar, to his credit, actually cut the rolls back to 150,000 through verification audits. It was one of his more economically coherent moves, though the Senate still murdered him. His successors quietly let the numbers climb again. What did the dole require? Massive grain imports from Sicily, Sardinia, and Egypt, organized through state logistics at state expense, funded by taxation and conquest. When the conquest revenue dried up, the obligation remained. Rome had written a check against future military success, and future military success eventually failed to arrive. The lesson is not complicated. Distribute a benefit and you distribute dependency. Distribute dependency and you distribute political power to whoever controls the distribution. The grain dole didn't weaken Rome overnight, but it made every subsequent reform politically impossible.

Three months later, Grok’s progress is amazing, and @bot makes it even more powerful and easier to use. This is the fidelity using the same prompt: “Explain Navier-Stokes equation and how it relates to airfoil design with actual fluid dynamics simulation.”

If you had condomless sex with 100 random white women, the odds of getting HIV would be 1 in 105,000. That’s before adjusting for college and lack of injection drug use, and other factors.

One of the most eloquent explanations of immigration you’ll ever hear. Milton Friedman had an extraordinary ability to cut through the political bullshit and explain complicated issues with simple economic logic. Still relevant today. 🎯

Be a chainbreaker - Dad’s are everything ❤️