Suspect we will start to hear about a “Pareto optimal” balance of computationally efficient humans, cheaper open-source tokens and frontier tokens. Our internal AI spend @Atreidesmgmt will be roughly 100x higher in August 2026 vs. March 2026. Still roughly doubling every month. Note that is before Grok Bot moves to consumption pricing which will likely create a step function when it happens (at least for me). AI means that scale has become more important to investing imo. I think there will be a minimum token spend required to be competitive in most knowledge based industries. The “compute inequality” referenced by Sholto in our discussion.

people don’t realize this, but 2026 appears to be the first year in human history where humanity as a whole is below replacement fertility. this has never happened before. not during wars. not during pandemics. for the first time in human history, we are not producing enough children to replace ourselves. this is the only real existential crisis.